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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-02-05T21:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-02-05T21:30Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-11T15:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-02-09T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2016 Feb 06 0620 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo CME was observed with first measurements in SOHO-LASCO/C2 around 19h36 UT on February 5. The CME was rather faint, but with an estimated angular width of about 120 degrees (CACTus currently estimated it into different pieces). The CME is propagating in the Southwest direction. The CME is associated with the eruption of a small filament near S20W20 (SDO/AIA 304 and GONG images) and seems to have an Earth directed component. Further analysis will need to reveal its speed and estimated effects on the Earth environment. 

Before the above mentioned eruption, two other small filaments disappeared as well (starting around 3h UT near S00W40 and one around 18h25 UT near S00E05). The first eruption did only result in a faint narrow CME, while for the second one no clear separate coronagraphic figures are visible.
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Lead Time: 123.62 hour(s)
Difference: 56.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-02-06T12:17Z
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